Monetary Policy

3-Month Treasury Rate

The 3-month Treasury bill yield is the closest market proxy for the Fed's policy stance, since bills this short mature before policy can drift far. It anchors the short end of the yield curve and sets the floor for money-market and repo rates. When the 3-month yield exceeds the 10-year, the curve is inverted, a condition that has preceded every US recession since 1955. For crypto, it is the risk-free rate that stablecoin yields and basis trades compete against.