Labor Market
The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, a threshold that has coincided with the start of every US recession since 1970. A simple, real-time recession-onset signal.
Read the units and reporting frequency before comparing periods. A level, a month-to-month change, and a year-over-year change answer different questions. Compare related economic indicators over the same dates.
Economic releases can be revised. Publication dates and the periods being measured may differ, and historical relationships do not establish cause and effect.
The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, a threshold that has coincided with the start of every US recession since 1970. A simple, real-time recession-onset signal.
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