Inflation & Prices

Core PCE Price Index

Core PCE strips food and energy from PCE because those two are volatile and largely supply-driven, so they obscure the underlying trend policy can act on. This is the single series the FOMC's own projections forecast, making it the most policy-relevant inflation number published. Watch the 3- and 6-month annualized rates rather than the year-over-year figure: they turn months earlier.