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Understanding Risk Indicators

How to read the four Risk Dashboard gauges, the Adaptive Risk Oscillator and the Crypto Market Risk Indicator.

Updated 2026-08-154 min read#risk #indicators #analysis

ChartInspect has a dedicated risk toolset. The Risk Dashboard and all six Crypto Risk charts require Pro; free accounts see an upgrade card in place of the dashboard and no gauge values are loaded.

Risk Dashboard

The dashboard is a four-panel grid you can drag and resize (rearranging is a Pro feature, and your layout is remembered in your browser):

  • Gauges
  • Price by Risk
  • Price Timeline
  • DCA Allocation, allocation guidance by risk level

It also has a chain selector, so it is not Bitcoin-only.

The Four Gauges

There are four gauges, and they do not all point the same way. Read the polarity before you read the number.

On-Chain Risk

Scored 0 to 1, where higher means more risk.

  • 0 to 0.1: Generational Buy
  • 0.1 to 0.3: Low Risk
  • 0.3 to 0.5: Moderate
  • 0.5 to 0.7: Elevated
  • 0.7 to 0.9: High Risk
  • 0.9 to 1: Extreme Risk

Short-Term Risk

Scored 0 to 100%, higher means more risk. Its zones are labelled Capitulation, Underwater, Recovering, Neutral, Profitable, Overheated and Euphoric. It is a weighted blend of short-term-holder signals including STH-SOPR and supply in profit.

Composite Momentum

Scored 0 to 100%, and it runs the other way: a high reading is bullish, not risky. It is a binary consensus across nine on-chain momentum indicators, with the top of the range labelled Strong Positive.

Whale Accumulation

Also 0 to 100% and also inverted: a high reading means Extreme Accumulation, which is constructive rather than risky.

Each gauge has its own smoothing selector: off (raw), 7d, 14d, 30d, 60d or 90d. Smoothing materially changes a reading, so check which setting you are on before comparing to a past screenshot.

Adaptive Risk Oscillator

A price-derived oscillator reading 0 to 1:

  • 0 to 0.3: Very Low Risk
  • 0.3 to 0.5: Low Risk
  • 0.5 to 0.7: Moderate Risk
  • 0.7 to 0.85: High Risk
  • Above 0.85: Extreme Risk

It is computed from price alone, using KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average) together with autocorrelation, variance decay, entropy and fractal analysis. It contains no on-chain input. The line is drawn with a continuous colour gradient from dark blue at the low end through green to red at the high end, rather than banded zones.

The chart has an asset selector and adjustable parameters (KAMA efficiency period, final EMA period, sigmoid steepness, reversal threshold) with preset buttons, plus an optional Efficiency Ratio series behind the legend.

Crypto Market Risk Indicator

This one is market-wide rather than single-asset. It aggregates the per-asset risk score of the top N cryptocurrencies (selectable: top 1, 10, 25, 50, 100, 150, 250 or 500, defaulting to top 50) into two series on a 0 to 1 scale:

  • Weighted Risk, weighted by market cap
  • Average Risk, a simple average

The Crypto Risk Category

Six charts, grouped in the sidebar:

  • Risk Scores: Crypto Risk Metrics, Adaptive Risk Oscillator, Crypto Market Risk Indicator
  • Risk Bands: Risk Values Non Color Coded, Time in Risk Bands, Price By Risk Level

The Adaptive Risk Oscillator and the Crypto Market Risk Indicator are also available through the public API under Market Indicators, can be alerted on, and can be added to the TradingView dashboard.

Using Risk Data

For long-term investors

  • Use the smoothed gauge settings rather than raw daily readings
  • Combine risk with supply dynamics for confirmation
  • The DCA Allocation panel translates a risk level into an allocation stance

For active traders

  • Watch for divergence between price and risk
  • Use risk zones as confluence rather than as a standalone signal

Important notes

  • These are analytical tools, not predictions
  • Historical patterns do not have to repeat
  • Always weigh several data points before acting
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results

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