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Understanding On-Chain Metrics

How to read MVRV, SOPR, NUPL and supply cohorts, and how on-chain coverage works across the nine indexed blockchains.

Updated 2026-08-154 min read#mvrv #sopr #nupl

On-chain metrics are derived directly from blockchain data. They describe what holders are actually doing, which price-based technical analysis cannot see.

What Are On-Chain Metrics?

They are built from four kinds of raw chain data:

  • Transaction data: volume, frequency and value of transfers
  • Address data: active addresses, new addresses, balance distributions
  • Supply data: how much of the supply is held, moved or dormant
  • Profitability data: whether holders are above or below their cost basis

Not Just Bitcoin

ChartInspect runs its own indexers across nine blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Hyperliquid and TRON, plus a wide set of ERC-20, SPL and TRC-20 tokens on top of them, including the major stablecoins.

On a chart that exists for more than one asset, use the Chain dropdown in the controls row above the chart (it shows the current ticker, for example BTC). If there is no Chain dropdown, that chart is Bitcoin-only. On-chain data for any asset other than Bitcoin requires Pro.

Key Metrics Explained

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)

MVRV compares market capitalization to realized capitalization, which is the aggregate cost basis of the supply.

  • Above 3.7: extreme overvaluation
  • 2.4 to 3.7: overvalued, caution warranted
  • 0.8 to 1.0: undervalued, historically an accumulation zone
  • Below 0.8: historically marks major bottoms

Important: the shaded bands drawn on the MVRV chart are not fixed at these numbers. They are recomputed from the data as the mean and standard deviation over a rolling four-year window, so the band edges on screen move over time. The numbers above are rules of thumb, the chart shows a regime-aware view.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score chart draws exactly one band, the red zone above 7. The finer gradations (overvalued, above average, fair value, undervalued, deep value) appear in the tooltip readout rather than as shaded zones.

Note that STH-MVRV is a different chart with a different scale entirely. Its bands run from above 2.5 (extreme profit) down to 0.6 and below (significant loss). Do not apply the plain-MVRV numbers to it.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)

SOPR measures whether coins being moved are in profit or loss.

  • Above 1: coins moved at a profit on average
  • Below 1: coins moved at a loss on average
  • At 1: break-even, which often acts as support in bull markets

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

NUPL shows the aggregate unrealized position of the market.

  • Above 0.75: Euphoria
  • 0.5 to 0.75: Belief
  • 0.25 to 0.5: Optimism
  • 0 to 0.25: Hope
  • -0.25 to 0: Fear
  • Below -0.25: Capitulation

Supply Cohorts

  • Short-Term Holder (STH): coins held less than 155 days
  • Long-Term Holder (LTH): coins held more than 155 days
  • Supply in Profit: share of coins above their cost basis
  • Realized Price: aggregate cost basis of the supply

One caveat worth knowing: the underlying data is bucketed into age bands rather than exact days, and the 3-to-6-month band straddles the 155-day line. Some surfaces count that band in both cohorts, so STH and LTH will not always sum exactly to the total supply.

How to Use On-Chain Data

Identifying Market Tops

Look for several signals converging:

  1. MVRV Z-Score entering its red zone above 7
  2. NUPL entering euphoria above 0.75
  3. Long-term holders distributing (LTH-SOPR spiking)
  4. Exchange inflows rising

Identifying Market Bottoms

Watch for:

  1. MVRV below 1, the market trading under its aggregate cost basis
  2. NUPL in capitulation
  3. Long-term holder accumulation
  4. Exchange outflows rising

How the Charts Are Organized

In the sidebar, On-Chain Metrics is grouped by asset first, then into eight families: Holder Analysis, Valuation Metrics, Market Sentiment, Momentum Indicators, Network Activity, Supply Dynamics, Exchange & ETF Flows, and Advanced Metrics. Several of those expand further, for example Holder Analysis splits into Cost Basis Analysis, MVRV Analysis, SOPR Analysis, Realized P/L Ratios and Cohort Analysis.

Every chart carries a description, and many on-chain charts also have a long-form explainer covering methodology and historical context. Risk scoring is a separate product surface, the Risk Dashboard and the Crypto Risk category, rather than a label attached to each chart.

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