Financial Markets
The gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, the New York Fed's preferred recession model input. An inversion (below zero) is one of the most reliable recession warnings; it inverted before every US recession since the 1960s.
Read the units and reporting frequency before comparing periods. A level, a month-to-month change, and a year-over-year change answer different questions. Compare related economic indicators over the same dates.
Economic releases can be revised. Publication dates and the periods being measured may differ, and historical relationships do not establish cause and effect.
The gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, the New York Fed's preferred recession model input. An inversion (below zero) is one of the most reliable recession warnings; it inverted before every US recession since the 1960s.
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