STH Stress

Bitcoin STH Stress tracks financial pressure on short-term holders by measuring how far the current Bitcoin price sits from the realized cost basis of short-term holder cohorts spanning one day to six months. Each cohort's deviation from its realized price is normalized into standard-deviation terms, and the cohorts are combined into a single STH composite that captures when recently acquired coins are collectively underwater.

Read the chart against the Bitcoin price line. Color-coded dots plotted on price convey stress intensity across the short-term holder cohorts, while red vertical bars mark the periods when the STH composite falls below minus one standard deviation. Those bars flag moments of genuine short-term holder capitulation, when the newest market participants are holding at a loss and pressure to sell is at its highest.

Use the red-bar episodes as a contrarian signal. When the STH composite drops below minus one standard deviation, short-term holders are capitulating, and historically these stress windows have coincided with local bottoms and potential buying opportunities in Bitcoin. Treat clusters of red bars as periods of maximum short-term pain rather than confirmation of further downside.

Check the selected asset, units, and cohort before comparing readings. Compare the metric over consistent dates and use related measures to understand what contributes to a change.