Reserve Risk

Reserve Risk plots Bitcoin's current price against long-term holder conviction, measured through HODL Bank (the cumulative coin-days destroyed when seasoned coins finally move). The lower the metric, the more long-term holders are sitting on their coins despite high prices; the higher the metric, the more conviction is being spent.

Reserve Risk has historically been the single most accurate Bitcoin cycle-bottom signal: it has bottomed within weeks of every macro low since 2011 (sub-0.002 readings in 2015, 2019, and 2022 all preceded multi-year bull runs). Values above 0.02 have aligned with cycle tops as long-term conviction is finally being sold into late-stage euphoria. Because it's a price-to-conviction ratio, it correctly rises during sustained rallies and bottoms during disbelief lows.

Reserve Risk is best used as a multi-year cycle clock, not a tactical signal: its turns are slow but its calls are decisive. Pair it with MVRV Z-Score and SOPR for confirmation. When all three agree at the extremes, the historical hit rate for major regime changes is exceptionally high.

Check the selected asset, units, and cohort before comparing readings. Compare the metric over consistent dates and use related measures to understand what contributes to a change.