The Bitcoin On-Chain Risk Composite condenses eight distinct on-chain metrics into a single, unified risk score. It combines NUPL, LTH PVR, Supply P/L, MVRV, MVRV Z-Score, Realized P/L Ratio, MCTC Ratio, and Active MVRV, then normalizes each through percentile ranking before blending them into one reading bounded between 0 and 1. Because it draws on eight independent signals rather than a single ratio, the composite smooths out the noise that can distort any one metric in isolation.
Read the score as a position within Bitcoin's cycle: values near 0 indicate the network is deeply undervalued relative to its own history, while values near 1 indicate widespread unrealized profit and elevated speculative risk. The chart offers fully customizable weights, so you can tune how heavily each of the eight metrics contributes and adapt the composite to your own read of the market.
Use it as a cycle-timing gauge. Readings above 0.85 have historically marked Bitcoin cycle tops, and readings below 0.15 have signaled generational buying opportunities. Rather than reacting to a single indicator flashing extreme, wait for the aggregate score to reach these zones, where multiple on-chain conditions align, before treating the signal as high-conviction.
Check the selected asset, units, and cohort before comparing readings. Compare the metric over consistent dates and use related measures to understand what contributes to a change.
