NUPL by Cohort Risk

Bitcoin NUPL by Cohort Risk builds a single sentiment gauge from every holder cohort rather than a single supply-wide reading. It combines multiple Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metrics with the Long-Term Holder Profit-to-Volatility Ratio, blending them through a balanced weighted score. The result is a composite that captures where each cohort of Bitcoin holders sits in profit or loss, and how that unrealized P&L behaves relative to volatility.

The chart translates that composite score into dynamic risk phases, drawn as color-coded dots directly on the Bitcoin price line. Each color marks the phase the cohort-weighted signal is in at that moment, so you read the market's position by the sequence and clustering of colored dots along price rather than by a single oscillator level. The value of the composite comes from cohort divergence: when short-term and long-term holders disagree, the blended score shifts before any one metric would.

Use it as a timing overlay layered on top of price action, not a standalone trigger. Watch for the risk phase colors to shift and for cohort divergence to build, since those transitions tend to lead the crowd. It pairs naturally with single-cohort NUPL, realized cap, and MVRV, which together ground the read in Bitcoin's on-chain cost basis.

Check the selected asset, units, and cohort before comparing readings. Compare the metric over consistent dates and use related measures to understand what contributes to a change.