NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) measures the aggregate paper profit or loss of all Bitcoin coins as a fraction of the network market cap. It is calculated as (market cap minus realized cap) divided by market cap, then color-banded into five emotional regimes: Capitulation, Hope/Fear, Optimism/Anxiety, Belief/Denial, and Euphoria/Greed.
Historically, NUPL crossing into the Euphoria zone (above 0.75) has flagged late-cycle tops, while NUPL falling into Capitulation (below 0) has marked deep accumulation territory where the network as a whole sits at a paper loss. The regime bands are not magic thresholds; they are empirical zones derived from a decade of Bitcoin price action that align with the dominant sentiment phase at each level of unrealized P&L.
Use NUPL to read where the market is in the psychological cycle, not as a single-shot timing tool. Sustained time in Euphoria is the warning sign for distribution; sustained time in Capitulation is the setup for the next bull. NUPL pairs naturally with realized cap and MVRV: together they form a coherent valuation toolkit grounded in on-chain cost basis.
Check the selected asset, units, and cohort before comparing readings. Compare the metric over consistent dates and use related measures to understand what contributes to a change.
