STH MVRV

STH MVRV (Short-Term Holder MVRV) compares the market value of Bitcoin held by short-term holders, meaning wallets that received their coins less than 155 days ago, to the realized value of those same coins. The ratio expresses the average new buyer profit or loss as a direct multiple of cost basis.

An STH MVRV above 1.35 has historically marked overheated euphoria where new buyers sit on >35% paper profits and tend to take chips off the table, producing local tops. Readings below 1.0 mean the average short-term holder is underwater, a state that has marked tactical bottoms in trending bull markets and capitulation phases in bear markets. The 155-day cutoff is empirical: it's the age threshold beyond which the probability of a coin being spent drops sharply, separating reactive money from conviction money.

Pair STH MVRV with LTH MVRV to read the regime: when STH MVRV resets toward 1 while LTH MVRV remains elevated, the market is digesting profit-taking without breaking the bull trend. Sustained STH MVRV below 1 alongside falling LTH MVRV is the classic bear-market signature. Treat extreme readings as risk signals, not entry or exit triggers; the indicator can stretch in trending tapes.

Check the selected asset, units, and cohort before comparing readings. Compare the metric over consistent dates and use related measures to understand what contributes to a change.