Crypto Risk

Adaptive Regime Change

Bitcoin price with its 100-day exponential average drawn green while the close holds more than 8% above it and red once the close falls more than 8% below it, a glowing dot on every switch, an optional High-Vol strip, and the model equity against buy and hold after costs. A price-only trend baseline validated walk-forward with a locked holdout on Bitcoin, deliberately tuned for few trades, about three a year, with a published Pi-cycle top condition that steps aside at cycle peaks; for Ethereum and the other listed coins the regime is Bitcoin's, applied to that coin's price, which beat each coin's own rule on 13 of 15 coins.